OCW Whale Watching Case Study

Hello all. Wanted to give everyone a “look back” of what some of the *paid* content looks like from me, so below you will find my monthly whale watching issue from July 1st, 2022. This monthly piece of content is highly detailed, and includes a macro overview of what smart traders are doing, notable trades by popular wallets, interesting movements into alt tokens, and other alt trader wallets that you can watch for yourself. The July issue of monthly whale watching will come out Monday morning, so if you want to get on the list, you can subscribe here.

I think there are a couple cool takeaways from this past issue specifically, including (1) contextual data on why we were probably near a local bottom (which turned out to be ~close to exact timing of the bottom), (2) data on capitulation from a well known DeFi fund (another bottom signal) and (3) some traders who have absolutely crushed it since the time of writing, including this wallet that I flagged, who ended up turning $300k into $1.3mm on XMON so far!

In addition to the monthly whale watching issue, paid subs receive:

• (1) time sensitive wallet movement alerts (for example I flagged that ParaFi was aggressively blowing out of their onchain positions here),

• (2) Project deep dives + trade ideas

  • Past examples include GMX, XMON and ILV

If you want on the list, you can sign up here, and receive real time onchain analysis, alerts and unbiased project deep dives (with catalysts) for just $10 per month or $100 per year.

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From July 1, 2022

Gm everyone. Here is the monthly update of large and interesting onchain whale wallet movements in the past month or so + some wallets for you steal from me. Next

week will have some free content going out to everyone (want to cover problems with current gaming structures, and is there anyone making $ in crypto right now).

High level Overview:

June 20th had the highest stablecoin inflow to exchanges this year, of over $4bn.

Source: Nansen

When we saw similar spikes this year, it marked local bottoms:

Looking at smart money stable holdings as a % of portfolios, we are near 1.5yr highs, suggesting a lot of capital is still waiting on the sidelines:

Source: Nansen

Smart money stabled up over the last 30 days, to the order of $186mm (though has been allocating some in the past day or so):

Source: Nansen

Whale Movements:

Tetranode buying SNX & no movement on CVX so far
Tetra in the past ~12 days looks to have picked up ~188k SNX or ~$410k worth.
Also, he did not sell his recently unlocked 1mm CVX yet - the unlock of which had folks worried (CVX is +16% since peak unlock fears).

Current portfolio:
FXS - $5.9mm (incl farms)
CVX - $3.9mm
ETH - $2.5mm
CRV - $1.3mm
SNX - $410k
OHM - $357k

Arca: 0x23a5efe19aa966388e132077d733672cf5798c03
Blowing out of everything it seems. They are trapped in their NXM position (basically no liquidity). They are dumping MPL into low liquidity. Also selling $1mm+ ETH positions.

OHM Smart Money Holdings + Some Movement:

• Sigil Fund - 0xe2e4f2a725e42d0f0ef6291f46c430f963482001

  • Now holding $1.5mm gOHM position (does not look like new buys)

• 0x0561a78021d8966ddd20c28c6c4318d8675ee1f0

  • $58k of gOHM DCA’s this month, now holding a $947k position

    • Note: Elite Dex Trader on Nansen

• Stani Kulechov (AAVE Founder) - 0xf5fb27b912d987b5b6e02a1b1be0c1f0740e2c6f

  • Holds a $310k OHM position

Some Interesting Alt Traders:

• Punkify.eth - 0xaf297dec752c909092a117a932a8ca4aaaff9795

  • Could be one worth following. Was farming DPX back in the day, holds GMX, still holds OHM, but mostly consolidated into BTC and ETH at this point

• devmons.eth - 0x0c5a2c72c009252f0e7312f5a1ab87de02be6fbe

  • This wallet actually funded some gOHM into the Sigil wallet, so there is likely a connection there (is also tagged as smart money on Nansen). Outside of a ~$600k core ETH position, they are farming $217k of XMON/ETH

  • It looks like they are focusing on NFTs currently, with recent buys of:

    • Elysian Fields

    • Forgotten Runes Wizard’s Cult

    • We are All Going to Die

• analytico.eth - 0xa0f75491720835b36edc92d06ddc468d201e9b73

  • This is an algo trading firm. Looking at their holdings, they are stabled up across the board, except for a ~$10mm farming position on stETH / ETH on Curve.

  • They also cashed out a 5k ETH position on Coinbase in the last few days

    • https://etherscan.io/tx/0x3ae3cbb0b657a0d044f9579fd19eb6110e9895fe13ccf4cf5987102b11294d55

Smart money moving into stETH
30 day inflows of $41mm.

Source: Nansen

Capitulation:

• The alt wallet I flagged last month, belonging to amelisa.eth (decent alt trader I follow) has blown out of everything, now basically just in stables: 0x3c9002cdb61c56b89467d94a2d93235dfd698089

• ParaFi - 0x4655b7ad0b5f5bacb9cf960bbffceb3f0e51f363

  • I wrote about this as a potential fund liquidation on 6/22, and since then they have also blown out of what was a $4.5mm LDO position

    • Now just holding ETH, MPL + MKR in a connected address

      • 0x59cee32f3ffaeabc0d4991ac7569ebad09e1a7d4

Another 3AC Wallet:
If you missed it, on twitter I posted a 15 address bundle of known 3AC wallets

Onchain Wizard @OnChainWizard

Here's a bundled account with 18 3AC addresses if you want to see where *some* of their portfolio stands + monitor future activity.

zapper.fiZapper - Your Home to Web3A simple dashboard for web3. Easily track and visualize all your DeFi assets and liabilities in one simple interface.

Well one of the wallets (0x549) funded 0.3 ETH to this address → 0x838e908284f97182a8cd11f4bc300835a99d1d0e. They routed some AXS dumping into ETH in this wallet, raising ~1,800 ETH or $1.9mm (yet to be dumped).

The Brave Souls:
Here are some wallets that are still buying alts (I closely follow) over the past 30 days:

• XMON:

  • 0xf6e2c94a609ca303964b65ec991a1a0d2991b961 - picked up 30 XMON from breaking LP’s on the XMON/ETH pair

    • Holds $218k XMON + $448k in the XMON/ETH farm

  • 0x39eea0258a5c3e3c5092b2f910371d124592a7fb - picked up $193k of XMON this month

• GMX:

  • 0x332a4fb9603ecd65f3a4e321e8c10826c46049af - since May this wallet has bought $350k of GMX

  • 0x5058352e527694a554966154397af9ab79d75461 - In June, bought a $147k GMX position

• JPEG:

  • 0xb0dafc466871c29662e5cbf4227322c96a8ccbe9 - un-LP’d their JPEG, now holding spot exposure of $270k

  • 0xf52bad5e97658f04b5228d58f428e98f9139d23f - $360k worth of spot JPEG buys in June

Summary: smart money is holding back stables, most are not allocating new capital to alts, and if they are, its only a few hundred grand. Funds are visibly capitulating or getting redemptions (Arca, ParaFi), and 3AC is still finding more tokens to dump. Overall does not seem like a good position to be bidding alts yet, which is why you are seeing the smart traders play it slow. We will see how that changes over the next month.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.