Smart Money Weekly (12/27/23)

And ETH Gambling Bleedout

Before we get started, it is very important to note that the market for trading any tokens on ETH/ARB/AVAX has been very weak for the past 2 weeks or so. All of the volume, users and liquidity has found itself flipping memecoins on SOL. The best way to visualize this shift, is by looking at users/volume changes across the TG trading tools. Bonkbot (sol’s main TG bot) has less daily users than Maestro on 12/13, and since then has seen a 6x increase in users to 36k yesterday. Bonk’s share of TG bot users increased from 34% to 91% as of yesterday. This has been a significant shift in terms of the “hot ball” of attention/liquidity/volume, and has led to weak to downright down only price action in ERC20 tokens.

From a volume perspective, this shift is even more pronounced. On 12/13, Bonk was doing $3mm of volume vs. a combined $27mm for Maestro and Banana. Yesterday Bonk did $67mm of volume vs $5.6mm for Maestro+Banana. Framed another way, Bonk volume 20x’d while the ETH tooling volume fell ~80%.

As you would expect, the prices for most of the popular ETH DEX coins topped around the 13th, and have trended lower. So if you are looking for an ETH revival / reversal in ERC20 tokens, it is worth watching the DEX trading bot wars dashboard to see where the degens are flowing.

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chainEDGE Weekly Report 12/27/23
Tomorrow we will publish our next iteration of New Tokens to Watch (this has been delayed a few days because there haven’t been many). But enjoy this free smart money report using data from chainEDGE. Side note: while we do not currently have SOL smart money data, we will be adding support for the chain very early next year.

Based on the number of $10k+ holders, smart money favorites are now OLAS, AGRS, MUBI, BANANA, $VAULT, MXH and HYPR. In general, smart money token holdings have been trending down across the board, as attention/volume/liquidity has shifted away from ERC20 coins.

Within this group of leaders, a few of the tokens that have seen accumulation (or at least flat holdings) since 12/13 include:

• OLAS (up 2%)

• MXH (newer token)

• HYPR (flat)

In terms of newer tokens with $20k smart holdings:

• KOI $103k of smart holdings across 5 wallets

• MXH $298k / 27 wallets

• MARK $181k / 5 wallets

• FI $167k / 5 wallets

• OMNI $159k / 8 wallets

• RSTK $102k / 7 wallets

• MZERO $64k / 6 wallets

• vMINT $47k / 4 wallets

• TUX (op) $26k / 2 wallets

• UEFN $20k / 12 wallets

In general, we’ve seen a marketwide (and smart money as well) shift towards memes on sol, and more fundamental projects on ETH. And then drilling down forward, the primary themes on ETH are AI, BRC20 and then more situation specific plays like HYPR, BANANA, MXH.

Looking at swap flows over the past week, EVM attention for coins on AVAX and ARB have cooled off, and its back to mostly ETH, with notable leaders seen in BDID, OMNI, TURT, MUBI, MXH, LBR, 1CAT and ENQAI, each with $50k+ of net buying.

Looking at non ETH flows, we’ve seen OWL, HMX, NOLA and SMOL emerge as leaders on ARB, while flows on other major EVM chains have been quite weak.

This wraps up this week’s chainEDGE smart money report. We’re excited to be rolling out Solana smart money data early next year to help navigate the hottest memecoin casino in years. And for your current EVM smart money needs,  try out chainEDGE today, before prices increase in 5 days ahead of our 3.0 release).