OCW: Market Cheat Sheet

As of writing, QQQ has bounced 20% from the lows, while ETH is +62% from its mid-June lows (many alts are up multiples). Slightly dovish commentary from the Fed in the face of deteriorating economic data has led the market to start front running a potential fed pivot. With ETH sustaining a solid rally, a lot of alts are starting to catch a bid again. Risk appetite has finally started to come back, so I wanted to lay out a sort of “cheat sheet” with key dates, catalysts and tools to help you out + hopefully make you some money on this upswing.

Tools:

As you start to research or allocate to non-majors, here is some of my most helpful content + tools. While some of these are more helpful to newer crypto users/investors, some of the below can help anyone upgrade their game:

• A reminder about playing the crypto game

• How to watch + find whale wallets

• How to research any project

• Degen portfolio management

• How to think about tokenomics

• Basic smart contract red flags

• Nansen

  • Currently the best tool to watch wallets on ETH, and see where smart money flows are going. The wallet alerts in particular are one of my favorite features

Token Ideas:

Below are the tokens I have researched so far, along with where smart money is allocating:

• XMON (which is now almost a 2x vs. ETH since writing)

• GMX (+130% or so since writing)

• ILV (which I did not think was a good buy, but is a project worth monitoring + lays out a template for you to do your own research)

• Latest whale watching post

  • Smart money is flowing into LDO, SYN and obviously ETH in a big way, among others

I’ll also be writing up another token investment case next week. Right now I am focusing on tokens that have improved their emissions since the bottom with near term catalysts on the horizon (or rising earnings). I don’t think this is a time to FOMO into meme tokens or things that have moved a lot already - I’m focusing on things that have *lagged* a bit in the rally vs. other alts, but that have a lot of positive fundamentals.

Key Dates & Catalysts:

• 8/10 - US July Inflation data release

• 9/13 - US August Inflation data release

  • Note: a sign of easing inflation should be good for risk assets

• 8/8-8/10 - Last Testnet Merge for ETH

• 9/19 - Expected ETH Merge Launch

• 9/21-9/22 - Next Fed Policy Meeting

I’ll write up a more detailed post on the Merge next week - the TLDR is if successful, this will be a major upside catalyst for ETH + alts.

Data I’m Watching:

The key data point for all markets right now is inflation, and if it is easing. Looking at Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast, it would appear that we are indeed experience some declines month over month in inflation (but not much). If we see this data start rolling over in a more material way, fiscal policy can ease up, and when paired with the hopefully successful ETH Merge, will be very good for crypto assets.

TXMC @TXMCtrades

Inflation Nowcast currently predicts 8.8% annual CPI for July. This algo from @ClevelandFed used to have a reputation for accuracy, but it has underestimated every CPI print since September last year, in some cases by 0.4% or more. Supply issues wreaking havoc on Fed modeling.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.